Ampernomics

Ampernomics is an independent energy technology project that helps households understand how time-of-use tariffs, solar panels and home batteries could affect their electricity costs. Rather than relying on typical consumption profiles or headline savings claims, Ampernomics uses a household’s own half-hourly electricity data. It replays that consumption against different tariffs and simulates alternative solar and battery configurations to estimate annual costs, savings, payback and long-term financial returns. The aim is to answer practical questions such as:

• Which electricity tariff best suits this household’s actual usage? • Would changing tariff save money without installing any hardware? • How much difference would solar panels or a home battery make? • Which system size offers the strongest financial case? • When should a battery charge and discharge on a time-of-use tariff?

The Problem

Electricity tariffs are becoming more varied and more dynamic. Prices may change by time of day or, on tariffs such as Octopus Agile, every half hour. At the same time, households considering solar panels and batteries are often presented with projections based on simplified assumptions. The interaction between consumption patterns, tariff prices, solar generation, battery capacity and export payments makes it difficult to determine which option genuinely offers the best value. Ampernomics makes those interactions visible by modelling them together using real household data.

How It Works

The platform operates at half-hourly resolution. For each settlement period it can model:

• household electricity consumption • import and export tariff prices • estimated solar generation • battery state of charge • battery charging and discharging • grid imports and exports

A simulation engine compares combinations of tariff, solar capacity and battery size. Battery operation is optimised using linear programming over a rolling planning horizon, accounting for usable capacity, charge and discharge limits, efficiency losses and electricity prices. The resulting scenarios are compared using measures including:

• annual electricity cost • annual savings • installation cost • simple payback • long-term net present value • sensitivity to financial and technical assumptions

The recommendation system then identifies options that offer a credible balance between savings, capital cost, system size and investment return, rather than simply selecting the configuration with the largest theoretical saving.

Technical Approach

Ampernomics combines several areas of software and energy-system engineering:

• ingestion and normalisation of smart-meter and tariff data • half-hourly electricity and solar modelling • constrained battery optimisation using linear programming • financial modelling over the expected life of an installation • scenario comparison and recommendation logic • asynchronous simulation using Azure Functions • a browser-based interface built with Svelte

An important design principle is that the system should not assume unrealistic knowledge of future prices or household behaviour. Battery decisions are therefore modelled using a limited rolling forecast rather than perfect foresight across an entire year.

Why It Matters

Consumers are increasingly expected to make decisions about dynamic tariffs, electrification, solar generation and battery storage. However, the information needed to make those decisions is fragmented across supplier apps, installer quotations, smart-meter exports and generic comparison tools. Ampernomics explores how software can translate that complexity into a clearer sequence of decisions:

• understand current electricity use • identify whether a better tariff is available • estimate whether solar or storage is financially justified • compare realistic system configurations • turn the result into practical next steps

What It Demonstrates

Ampernomics demonstrates work across:

• energy-market and smart-meter data • optimisation and simulation • financial and investment modelling • cloud-based data processing • consumer-facing product design • integration between software, tariffs and physical energy assets

It also reflects my wider interest in software that connects digital systems with physical infrastructure and helps consumers participate more effectively in the energy transition.

Longer-Term Direction

The current platform is primarily a decision-support tool. The wider opportunity is to connect analysis with action: tariff switching, installer introductions, ongoing price alerts and devices such as Greenlight that make changing electricity prices visible inside the home. The longer-term question remains: If the cost and carbon intensity of electricity change throughout the day, how can software help households respond?